Where the tape is set up

• October 11, 2026Record highs, a ten-year near 5.25%Tue 10/13: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo. Wed 10/14: September CPI (headline polled at 3.6% against 3.4%), Morgan Stanley, Bank of America…21 min read
• October 4, 2026The hike came off; the long end stayedThe week ahead is light on data and heavy on interpretation. ISM services Mon 10/5 (consensus 55.7), Fed minutes Wed 10/7, PepsiCo Thu 10/8, Delta Fri 10/9…22 min read
• September 27, 2026Growth hot enough to buy an October hikeThe week ahead has two prints that set how much of an October hike gets locked in. August PCE Wed 9/30, core consensus +0.3% on the month; Micron reports the…23 min read
• September 20, 2026A hiking cycle meets a supply shockThe week ahead carries no major data and ten Fed appearances, so the dots get interpreted, not tested. Flash PMIs Wed 9/23, jobless claims Thu, durable goods…25 min read
• September 13, 2026The hike is priced; the 2027 dots are notWed Sept 16: FOMC decision 2:00pm ET with a new dot plot, presser 2:30. Futures put the quarter point near 85-90% (CME FedWatch). Lennar reports that…20 min read
• September 6, 2026An oil shock the meeting cannot seeProducer prices Thursday, Oracle and Adobe after Thursday's close, August CPI Friday 9/11 with core consensus at +0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y. All of it lands four…24 min read
• August 30, 2026A stretched tape into a payrolls weekFour macro prints and one earnings report land before Friday: ISM manufacturing Tuesday, ADP and JOLTS Wednesday, ISM services Thursday, then August payrolls…23 min read

About these notes

What is the Sunday research note?

A weekly forward-looking market note published every Sunday. Where the Friday Wrap reports what happened in the week just finished, this one looks ahead across several horizons at what the tape is set up to do next.

Does it predict where markets are going?

No. It frames scenarios and says what each would require, and what would invalidate it. It states no base case, no target, no bias and no expectation, because those are forecasts and we do not publish forecasts.

How is it different from the Friday Wrap?

The Friday Wrap is retrospective: what moved the week, and what it did to the tape. The Sunday note is forward-looking: which conditions are set up, and what each one would need to resolve either way. Neither carries a trade.