The Friday Wrap — October 23, 2026: Brent's six-month high, and a Lam gap down

Oil took the week while stocks went sideways

The indexes barely moved this week, but the commodity did. SPY fell 0.43% to 759.97, its second red week in a row. QQQ lost 0.76% to 704.40. IWM gained 1.96% to 275.75, which ended a streak of six red weeks. Brent crude settled Friday at $116.72, per CNBC, up 6.2% on the week and its third straight weekly gain, the highest settlement since April 29.

Calendar periods give the better picture. October is now a month where the index you owned decided your result. QQQ is down 4.78% for the month, SPY is down 0.35% and IWM is down 0.77%, a 4.43-point spread between the first and the second. Zoom out and the year is intact. QQQ is still the best of the three at +14.67% year to date, against IWM at +12.02% and SPY at +11.45%. A bad month for the growth index has not turned into a bad year, and it should not be read as one.

Crude, and what the coverage said

CNBC had WTI at $103.27 on Friday's settle, up 3.8% on the day, after Brent closed Thursday at $113.17, its highest close since May 4. The coverage tied the climb to fears of escalation in the Middle East and to reports that the U.S. may resume strikes against Iran. Headlines from IBTimes and FinanceFeeds added that Houthi attacks had forced Aramco to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters. We report that as the coverage's account and have not independently confirmed it.

Our own proxy was a little different. USO, which holds WTI futures and is not the spot price, gained 4.8% on the week, 4.32% of it on Friday. It is up 16.39% for October and sits 39.41% above its 200-day. The coverage put WTI's weekly gain at about 2%, so the two do not agree on size, and part of the gap is simply that a futures fund and a settle are not the same instrument. XLE, the energy sector fund, rose 1.60% to 69.33 on the broker feed. That is a much smaller move than the commodity made, so the equity market did not price crude the way the crude market did.

The Fed on Wednesday, and what is priced

The committee decides on October 28. The target range is 3.75%-4.00% after the September 16 hike, which passed 12-0 with no dissent in either direction. The data since has been soft, with the September jobs report showed 29,000 added jobs against estimates above 80,000, with unemployment up to 4.2%, and core PCE running 3.0% for August. Last week's September CPI came in at 3.7%.

Pricing for a second hike has fallen sharply, though the sources do not agree on a number. Coverage citing Kalshi had a quarter-point hike near 8% for October 28, other tallies had 13% and 14.9% as of October 22, and CME FedWatch had it at 41.5% on October 14. One prediction-market tally put a hike before the end of 2027 at 79%. We do not carry futures-implied odds ourselves, so those are the outlets' figures, and they describe what is priced, not what happens.

Earnings: Lam gapped, Netflix guided down

Lam Research reported Wednesday after the close. EPS was $2.20 against a $2.18 estimate, its seventh straight beat in the broker's record. The stock opened Thursday at 234.50 against a prior close of 260.81, a 10.1% gap, and closed the session down 11.76% at 230.15, and it finished the week down 12.81%. Stocktwits' roundup pointed to a supply warning, and another account of the session described investors rotating out of AI-linked stocks. The tape treated a small beat as the wrong kind of news.

Netflix reported Tuesday after the close with EPS of $0.87 against $0.82. Yahoo Finance's account was that revenue came in line and the fourth-quarter operating margin guide of 26.0% sat well under the third quarter's 34.6%. The stock fell 5.31% on Wednesday to 65.04, bounced 3.09% on Thursday and gave back 1.76% on Friday. It lost 6.61% on the week.

Intel has not reported yet, but it fell 8.04% on Thursday alone, before its own results, and finished the week down 3.21% at 86.97. One week-ahead roundup listed Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Intel as reporting next week, and dates move.

The rest of the AI complex was uneven. Meta lost 6.98% on Thursday and 9.45% on the week to 642.26, and we found no sourced reason for it, so we will not supply one. CoreWeave fell 11.66% to 54.23, with 10.06% of that on Thursday. Nvidia slipped 1.46% to 211.00 and Oracle 1.65% to 126.12. TSMC rose 1.35% to 418.19 against a 9.00% drop the week before.

The tape

SPY's Friday was a doji with a long upper tail, 73% of the day's range, inside 758.68 to 763.47. The low matched the 20-day low exactly. Price sits under its 10-day at 769.33, its 20-day at 770.15 and its 50-day at 767.81, so it is 1.02% below the 50-day and still 4.53% above the 200-day at 727.01. The daily stochastic at 5.6 says it closed at the bottom of its two-week range. On the weekly chart it is 0.97% under its 10-week average at 767.40 and 0.75% under the 8-week EMA at 765.70, and the weekly MACD histogram is still negative.

The gather's analog is now in effect, with two red weeks and a close below both weekly averages. It has occurred 13 times in about 2.5 years. One week later the median was +0.21%, with SPY up in 8 of 13 and a range of -3.07% to +5.67%. Four weeks later the median was +2.59%, up in 8 of 13, with a range of -12.27% to +12.59%. That sample is small and describes the past, so it is not a forecast.

Where the three disagree

IWM is the story of the week. It was 2.6% under its 200-day last Friday and closed 0.89% under it this one, at 275.75 against 278.23. It is now above its 10-day and just under its 20-day at 277.19. The 50-day at 286.41 is still 3.72% overhead, and the 20-day sits 3.22% under it, so the repair is partial. Friday's candle was a harami with a long lower tail, a day that was sold and bought back.

QQQ is the other side of that. It closed 4.19% under its 20-day, 2.95% under its 50-day and 2.77% under its 10-week average, with a daily stochastic of 5.3. Its Friday low of 701.16 is the 20-day low, and the 60-day low is 680.05. A 2.72-point gap between IWM and QQQ on the week, with SPY between them, is the divergence in one line.

Cross-asset

These are ETF proxies, so USO is not WTI, UUP is not the dollar index, and VIXY holds VIX futures, not spot VIX.

GLD fell 4.03% on the week and sits 11.49% under its 200-day, so gold did not bid while oil did. UUP was up 0.14% and TLT gained 1.61% on the week and IEF 0.70%, though TLT gave back 0.49% on Friday. VIXY rose 1.07%, still 25.02% under its 200-day.

Open interest

Open interest only, from OCC data as of October 21, so it is not Friday's book. Friday's expiry carried its largest put strike at 745 with 37,765 contracts, then 725 at 30,869 and 769 at 24,424. Its largest call was 790 at 34,593, then 780 at 24,529. Monday's expiry has 25,122 puts at 766 and 17,890 at 762, against 6,176 calls at 805. SPY closed between 745 and 790.

Next week

From the research, the FOMC decision is October 28. Consumer confidence and new home sales are listed for October 27, and the Bank of Canada decides October 28. The PCE report is listed for October 29 or 30 depending on the source. The next jobs report is listed for November 6. Our audited local econ list ended October 2, so these dates come from the research and the calendars disagree. From our local earnings cache, which covers 13 semiconductor names and was last fetched September 18, Texas Instruments is scheduled for October 27, KLA for October 28 and Qualcomm for October 29.

What we don't carry

No dark-pool prints, no closing-auction imbalance, no spot VIX and no true gamma exposure. The levels come from SIP bars and OCC open interest.

What this sets up

The through-line is that the oil market and the AI trade pulled in opposite directions while the index averaged them into a small loss. Brent rose for a third week on escalation headlines. The most crowded chip and software names sold off on their own reports and on rotation. Small caps, the one group that was oversold, bounced.

Next week has the policy decision and the inflation read inside two days of each other, plus a heavy stretch of mega-cap and chip earnings. SPY's 20-day low of 758.68 is 0.17% under Friday's close. If it gives, 745 is the largest put strike in the expiring series and 737.68 is the 60-day low. If SPY recovers its 50-day at 767.81, the 20-day at 770.15 is next. QQQ has 701.16 under it and 680.05 below that. IWM needs its 200-day at 278.23 and has the 20-day at 277.19 just beneath it. Which of those happens is not ours to say. Where they sit is.

The Coil board

The account is in day mode as of Friday. The SPX book is risk-off and in cash, since SPY is above its 200-day but 1.0% under its 50-day with no live index setup. The QQQ book is index-only, with a live setup but no sector open beneath it. Our macro read stays risk-off and defensive. Crypto is selective, with the BTC 200-day gate open but no sleeve in, down from one of two a week ago, and 50 of 81 panel names above their own 200-day, down from 56.

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This letter is impersonal research produced by an automated system. It is not investment advice, it is not a recommendation, and it does not account for your circumstances.

Sources — prices, ranges, moving averages and weekly statistics from our own Alpaca SIP bars, split-adjusted; open interest from OCC data as of 2026-10-21; single-stock sessions and EPS estimates from the broker feed. Macro and news from CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Stocktwits, IBTimes, FinanceFeeds, Investing.com, 24/7 Wall St. and Kalshi-cited prediction-market coverage.