The Friday Wrap — October 2, 2026: 29,000 jobs, and the hike odds fell

The print that moved the week

The week turned on one number. The September jobs report showed payrolls up just 29,000, against a Dow Jones consensus of 84,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from an expected 4.1%, per CNBC. TechTimes reported that revisions took another 60,000 jobs off prior months. CNN's headline used the word that mattered to the market, which was "just."

Futures read it as a reason for the Fed to wait. CME's FedWatch tool put the odds of a quarter-point increase at the October 27-28 meeting somewhere between 18% and 22% after the release, depending on the outlet and the hour. Last week's letter reported 73.5% for the same question as of September 24. That is most of a hike priced out in eight days, and almost all of it on Friday morning.

The backdrop is the September 16 decision. The committee raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on a 12-0 vote, its first increase in more than three years, and the statement said inflation "remains elevated." There was no dissent in either direction. The minutes of that meeting are due on Wednesday.

The bond market did not agree

Here is the part that does not fit the tidy version. Stocks rallied on the miss, and longer Treasuries sold off anyway. CNBC had the 10-year yield up almost 5 basis points on Friday to 5.281%, with the 2-year also higher at 4.839%.

Our proxies say the same thing across the full week. TLT fell 0.30% on Friday and 2.32% on the week, and it now sits 9.3% under its 200-day average. IEF lost 1.06%. Last week's letter reported TLT down 2.38%, so this is a second straight week of the long end losing about the same ground. We report the disagreement and leave it there. Futures took a hike off the table, and the bond market charged more to lend for ten years.

Crude: choppy, and still near $100

Oil had a back-and-forth week without a new shock. Brent finished Friday at $99.68, down 2.57% on the day and up 4.36% over the month, per TradingEconomics. The same coverage said it had risen for two sessions before Friday, as traders weighed reports that the Pentagon was considering another aircraft carrier and 10,000 more sailors and Marines for the Persian Gulf.

USO traced that path. It fell to 143.35 on Tuesday, recovered to 150.02 on Thursday, then gave up 1.77% on Friday to finish 0.65% lower on the week. It is still 7.28% above its 50-day average and 27.96% above its 200-day. The supply scare has stopped building, and it has not unwound.

Earnings: three prints, three different treatments

Micron reported after the close on September 30. Adjusted EPS was $33.42 against an estimate of $31.50, revenue was $54.23 billion, and the company guided to about $61.5 billion and $38.15 a share for the current quarter, per CNBC, which also reported data-center revenue up elevenfold. On Thursday the stock opened 1.0% lower, traded down as much as 4.0% to 1,022.90, and then closed up 3.03% at 1,097.39. Friday took back 2.11%. Across the week it finished 0.74% lower at 1,074.27, after running 6.49% into the print the week before. The beat was large and the stock had already been paid for it.

Accenture reported before the open on Thursday, with EPS of $3.29 against $3.18 and revenue of $18.7 billion above its own guidance. That session closed up 15.78% at 212.30, after touching 227.63 intraday. Friday gave back 6.29%, but the week still ended up 12.96%.

Nike reported Thursday after the close. The EPS line beat, at $0.48 against $0.44. The rest of the release was weaker. Revenue came in at $11.21 billion, down 4% and short of estimates in BigGo Finance's account, and the company guided to a high-single-digit revenue decline for fiscal 2027 with adjusted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35, per CNBC. It also introduced a $2.5 billion cost program it calls Pace. The tape ignored the beat. The stock fell 3.59% on Friday to 33.89 and 5.20% for the week. A cost plan and a lowered guide do more work in a print than four cents of EPS.

The week on the tape

SPY closed at 769.64, down 0.22% on the week. It slipped for three sessions from 771.35 to 762.63 on Wednesday, the last day of the quarter, and Friday's 0.74% gain recovered most of that. That makes one red week, not a streak, and the two-red-week analog is not in effect.

Friday opened higher on the jobs number and closed below its open, a small body inside a 767.14 to 772.65 range. The buyers who came in at the bell did not add through the afternoon. Price sits above every daily average, with the 20-day at 764.83 and the 50-day at 763.70 both within 1% underneath. The 20/50 spread is +0.15% and has narrowed for a second week, so the two lines are close to meeting. Weekly MACD stays negative even with price 0.36% above its 10-week average, which says the level has repaired faster than momentum. The 20-day range runs from 749.60 to 775.14, and the 60-day high is 779.37.

Where the three disagree

QQQ rose 0.68% to 749.58 and set a new 60-day high of 754.54 on Friday, above last week's 748.35. It closed 0.66% under that high, again below its open. It is 4.57% above its 50-day average and its daily stochastic sits near 91, a measure of how far it has come in a short time.

IWM went the other way for a fourth straight week. It fell 0.16% to 281.52. On Thursday it printed a new 60-day low of 275.45, under last week's 279.05, and then recovered 2.20% off that low by Friday's close. It remains below its 10-day, 20-day and 50-day averages, its 20/50 spread is -2.59% and still widening, and it is now just 1.88% above its 200-day.

September's final numbers make the split plain. QQQ gained 3.21% for the month, SPY lost 0.58%, and IWM lost 5.46%, a spread of 8.67 points between the large-cap growth index and the small caps. The year keeps it in proportion. Year to date QQQ is up 22.02%, IWM 14.36% and SPY 12.86%, so small caps are still ahead of the S&P for 2026 after a month like that.

The small-cap slide and the bond sell-off ran side by side all month. We can show that they moved together. We cannot show that one caused the other.

Cross-asset

These are ETF proxies. USO is not WTI, UUP is not the dollar index, and VIXY holds VIX futures, not spot VIX.

UUP rose 0.94% on the week and sits 4.09% above its 200-day, so the dollar proxy firmed with yields. GLD fell 3.37% on the week and is 8.65% under its 200-day, after a 1.93% loss the week before. VIXY rose 0.66% on the week but fell 2.11% on Friday and is 8.73% below its 50-day. Volatility futures barely moved through a jobs miss and a second week of long-bond selling.

Open interest

Open interest only, from OCC data as of September 30, so it is not Friday's book. The October 2 expiry settled on Friday with its largest call strike at 785 (61,292 contracts) and its largest puts at 730 (79,356) and 745 (68,136). The next listed expiry, October 5, is thin, with 2,839 calls at 795 and 2,608 at 775, and 6,868 puts at 750 and 5,512 at 755.

Next week

From the research, ISM services lands Monday, October 5, and the minutes of the September FOMC meeting are released Wednesday, October 7 at 2:00 ET, per FXStreet and Newsquawk's week-ahead, which also lists an OPEC+ meeting. September CPI follows on Wednesday, October 14 at 8:30 ET, and the next FOMC decision is October 28. Our audited local econ list ends with Friday's jobs report, and our local earnings cache, which covers 13 semiconductor names only, shows nothing scheduled in the next nine days. Dates move.

What we don't carry

No dark-pool prints, no closing-auction imbalance, no spot VIX and no true gamma exposure. The levels come from SIP bars and OCC open interest, and the macro from the outlets named below.

What this sets up

The through-line is that the market got the soft number it wanted and only half of it showed up in prices. Hike odds fell from 73.5% to roughly a fifth, QQQ printed a new 60-day high, and SPY nearly erased a red week in one session. The 10-year still rose to 5.28%, TLT lost another 2.32%, and IWM made a new 60-day low on Thursday before it bounced.

Next week's calendar speaks to exactly that gap. Wednesday's minutes will show how the committee argued the September hike, and the CPI print on October 14 is the inflation read it answers to. Both arrive before the October 28 decision that futures just repriced.

The levels are close. SPY's 20-day at 764.83 and 50-day at 763.70 sit less than 1% under the close, with the 20-day high at 775.14 and the 60-day high at 779.37 above. On the thin October 5 book, 750 is the largest put and 795 the largest call. QQQ is 0.66% under its new high of 754.54. IWM is 2.20% above the 275.45 low it set Thursday and 3.78% below its 50-day. Which of these gives first is not ours to say. Where they sit is.

The Coil board

The account is in day mode as of Friday. The SPX book has names on in agile, chop-capped mode, with SPY and two of eleven sectors open (Energy and Information Technology, down from four last week) and 169 names fully qualified. The QQQ book has names on in swing mode, with four of six sectors open (Biotech & Pharma, Internet & Media, Semis, Software) and 33 names qualified. Our macro read is risk-off and defensive, standing down on longs. Crypto is constructive, with BTC 19.0% above its 200-day gate, both sleeves in, and 69 of 81 panel names above their own 200-day.

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This letter is impersonal research produced by an automated system. It is not investment advice, it is not a recommendation, and it does not account for your circumstances.

Sources — prices, ranges, moving averages and weekly statistics from our own Alpaca SIP bars, split-adjusted; open interest from OCC data as of 2026-09-30; single-stock closes and EPS estimates from the broker feed. Macro and news from CNBC, CNN, TechTimes, CME FedWatch as reported by CNBC and Yahoo Finance, TradingEconomics, BigGo Finance, FXStreet and Newsquawk.