The Friday Wrap — July 24, 2026: two red weeks, and the 8-week line gave way

SPY closed the week at 738.93, down 0.59%, its second red week in a row. Here's what the tape looks like going into an FOMC week.

The weekly frame

The reclaim attempt failed. SPY tried to get back above its 10-week average at 743.14 and finished 0.57% under it, and this week the 8-week EMA at 740.17 gave way as well. Two red weeks, both moving averages lost. The weekly MACD rolled over, but barely, which makes it a fresh cross and not an established downtrend; weekly RSI at 59.1 is still in the upper half of its range.

We looked for prior weeks matching this setup: two or more red weeks with price under both averages. There are 13 in our roughly 129-week history. One week later the median was +0.02% and the range ran −3.07% to +5.67%; four weeks later the median was +2.88% with a range of −12.00% to +12.59%. Thirteen samples over two and a half years is a description, not a base rate. We show it because the range is the point. This setup has resolved both ways, hard.

The daily

Friday printed a doji with a long upper tail, 74% of the day's range above the body, sitting entirely inside Thursday's body, which makes it a rejection candle and not a hammer, closing at 738.93 after trading up to 743.72.

The moving averages have compressed to almost nothing. The 10-day at 746.47 and the 20-day at 746.15 are four cents apart, with the 50-day just under at 744.11. Price is below all three and 6.26% above the 200-day at 695.41. Daily stochastic is inside oversold at 18.3, and a normal day now covers about six points. The levels that have actually traded are 716.58 to 755.58 over 20 days and 706.55 to 758.45 over 60.

Underneath

QQQ is the weaker index, down 1.6% on the week and 4.69% below its 50-day with a daily stochastic at 4.0. IWM is the quieter problem: a fourth consecutive red week, though it is still 10.43% above its 200-day and sitting right on its 50-day. Large-cap tech is falling faster; small caps have been bleeding longer.

Cross-asset (ETF proxies; we don't carry index feeds, so read these as proxies, not as DXY or spot WTI)

Oil was the week's real move: USO +10.27%, now 38.28% above its 200-day. We carry no news feed, so we are not going to tell you why. The dollar proxy rose 0.88%, TLT fell 1.5% and IEF 0.86%, so long rates rose on the week. Gold added 0.95% and remains 9.69% under its 200-day. The VIX futures ETF slipped 0.97%; volatility has not been bid.

Open interest into next week (OCC book dated July 22, which lags, so this is Wednesday's positioning)

For Monday's July 27 expiry, the largest put strike is 730 at 10,775 contracts, with 740 next at 4,681. Calls are thinner and higher: 756 at 5,482 and 765 at 5,192. So the strikes with real size beneath price are 740 and 730, and the call congestion sits well above at 754 and up. If 738 to 740 holds, that put interest is under the market. If it doesn't, 730 is the next strike with comparable size.

On the calendar

FOMC decides Wednesday, July 29 at 2:00 PM ET, with the press conference at 2:30. Among the semiconductor names we track, QCOM and LRCX are scheduled for Wednesday and KLAC for Thursday. Scheduled dates move, and our calendar covers the semis we follow, not the full megacap slate.

What this sets up

Two red weeks, both weekly averages lost, and a daily stack compressed to within a dollar. That is a coiled market going into an FOMC decision on Wednesday, with the put book stacked at 740 and 730 beneath it and the call book at 754 and above. The compression is the setup: a normal day is six points and the averages are four cents apart, so a move in either direction clears all three at once. If the 8-week line at 740 is reclaimed, the 10-week at 743 is the next test. If 740 goes, 730 is where the next size sits. The FOMC decides which of those happens; we describe where the levels are.

What we don't carry

Dark-pool prints, MOC imbalances, spot VIX, gamma exposure and a news feed. We would rather show you a thinner sheet that's true.

The board

Coil's Equities book ended the week in CASH. Index green and 8 of 11 sectors green, but SPY closed under its 50-day, and swing holds don't activate until it closes back above. The Nasdaq book is index-only and Macro is RISK OFF. Crypto's gate is shut with BTC 10.3% below its 200-day, zero of two sleeves in.

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Coil publishes impersonal research, not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and nothing here is a forecast.