The Friday Wrap — July 24, 2026: two red weeks, and the 8-week line gave way

SPY closed the week at 738.93, down 0.59% — its second red week in a row. Here's what the tape looks like going into an FOMC week.

The weekly frame

The reclaim attempt failed. SPY tried to get back above its 10-week average at 743.14 and finished 0.57% under it. The difference from last week is the 8-week EMA at 740.17: last week it held, this week it didn't — price closed 0.17% below. Two red weeks, both moving averages lost.

The weekly MACD rolled over, but barely: the histogram sits at −0.13 after being positive the week before. That's a fresh cross, not an established downtrend. Weekly RSI is 59.1, still in the upper half of its range, and weekly stochastic is at 66.3 with its signal at 81.7 — coming down from a high reading, with room below.

We looked for prior weeks matching this exact setup — two or more consecutive red weeks with price under both the 10-week average and the 8-week EMA. In our ~129-week history there are 13. One week later the median was +0.02%, higher 7 of 13 times, spanning −3.07% to +5.67%. Four weeks later the median was +2.88%, higher 8 of 13, spanning −12.00% to +12.59%. Thirteen samples over two and a half years is a description of a small sample, not a base rate. We're showing it because the range is the point: this setup has resolved both ways, hard.

The daily

Friday printed a doji with a long upper tail — 74% of the day's range is the wick above the body. That's a rejection candle, not a hammer, and it sits entirely inside Thursday's body, making it a harami. Price closed at 738.93 after trading up to 743.72.

The moving averages have compressed to almost nothing: the 10-day at 746.47 and the 20-day at 746.15 are 0.04% apart, with the 50-day just under at 744.11. Price is below all three and 6.26% above the 200-day at 695.41. The 20/50 spread is +0.27%, still positive but widening by only 0.024pp — the trend separation is stalling rather than expanding.

Daily MACD is at 0.57 against a 2.09 signal — close to crossing zero from above. Daily RSI is 45.5. Daily stochastic is at 18.3, inside oversold. ATR is 6.05, about 0.82% of price, so a normal day covers roughly six points in either direction.

Levels that have actually traded: 716.58–755.58 over 20 days, 706.55–758.45 over 60.

Underneath

QQQ is the weaker index — down 1.6% on the week, 4.69% below its 50-day, with daily stochastic at 4.0, deeply oversold. IWM is the quieter problem: it's on its fourth consecutive red week, though it's still 10.43% above its 200-day and sitting right on its 50-day. Large-cap tech is falling faster; small caps have been bleeding longer.

Cross-asset (ETF proxies — we don't carry index feeds, so read these as proxies, not as DXY or spot WTI)

Oil was the week's real move: USO +10.27%, now 38.28% above its 200-day. We don't carry a news feed, so we're not going to tell you why. The dollar proxy rose 0.88%, TLT fell 1.5% and IEF 0.86% — long rates up on the week. Gold added 0.95% but remains 9.69% under its 200-day. The VIX futures ETF slipped 0.97% and sits 23.96% below its own 200-day; volatility has not been bid.

Open interest into next week (as of the OCC book dated July 22 — it publishes with a lag, so this is Wednesday's positioning, not Friday's)

For Monday's July 27 expiry, the largest put strike by open interest is 730 at 10,775 contracts, with 740 next at 4,681. Calls are thinner and higher: 756 at 5,482 and 765 at 5,192. Today's expiring book was denser and told the same story — 740 puts at 33,972 were the single largest strike on the board, with 735 and 730 also carrying size, and call interest stacked at 754–760.

So the strikes with real size beneath price are 740 and 730, and the call congestion sits well above at 754+. If 738–740 holds, that put interest is under the market. If it doesn't, 730 is the next strike with comparable size. We're describing where contracts sit, not predicting which way they resolve.

On the calendar

FOMC decides Wednesday, July 29 at 2:00 PM ET, with the press conference at 2:30. Among the semiconductor names we track, QCOM and LRCX are scheduled for Wednesday and KLAC for Thursday — scheduled dates move, and our calendar covers the semis we follow, not the full megacap slate.

What we don't carry

The write-ups you may read elsewhere lean on dark-pool prints, MOC imbalances, spot VIX/VVIX, and gamma exposure. We don't have feeds for any of those, so you won't see them here. On gamma specifically, our own research in July found the max-pain and GEX evidence badly mis-cited — open interest was the piece that held up, so open interest is what we publish. We'd rather show you a thinner sheet that's true.

The board

Coil's Equities book ended the week in CASH — index green and 8 of 11 sectors green, but SPY closed under its 50-day, and swing holds don't activate until it closes back above. The Nasdaq book is index-only. Macro is RISK OFF. Crypto's gate is shut with BTC 10.3% below its 200-day, zero of two sleeves in.

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Coil publishes impersonal research, not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and nothing here is a forecast.