{"product":"coil-edge-research","count":9,"studies":[{"slug":"is-chasing-a-strong-stock-a-losing-habit","title":"Is chasing a strong stock a losing habit?","question":"Does buying a US stock that is up sharply on the day and near that day's high lose, against random entries the same day and the same name on other days?","verdict":"FAIL","meaning":"FAIL means the idea did not pass the study's pre-registered bar. It does not mean chasing loses: the study found no reliable evidence either way.","evidence_class":"BACKTRADER","data_window":"14 US trading sessions, 5-minute bars (2026)","price_usd":0.25,"price_atomic":"250000","currency":"USDC","teaser_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/is-chasing-a-strong-stock-a-losing-habit","paid_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/research/is-chasing-a-strong-stock-a-losing-habit/full"},{"slug":"does-waiting-for-a-30-minute-pivot-candle-improve-a-stock-entry","title":"Does waiting for a 30-minute pivot candle improve a stock entry?","question":"On a strong stock in a daily uptrend, does waiting for a 30-minute pivot candle and buying the break of its high beat buying right after the pivot closes, and does it make money after costs and the S&P 500?","verdict":"FAIL","meaning":"FAIL means the pivot-candle entry did not pass the study's pre-registered bar: after costs its trades trailed the S&P 500, and its small edge over simpler entries came only from trading less often.","evidence_class":"BACKTRADER","data_window":"10.7 years of 30-minute bars, 783 symbols (2016 to 2026-10-02)","price_usd":0.25,"price_atomic":"250000","currency":"USDC","teaser_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/does-waiting-for-a-30-minute-pivot-candle-improve-a-stock-entry","paid_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/research/does-waiting-for-a-30-minute-pivot-candle-improve-a-stock-entry/full"},{"slug":"does-buying-the-opening-range-breakout-on-strong-stocks-make-money","title":"Does buying the opening-range breakout on strong stocks make money?","question":"On strong stocks with a prior 30% run-up and a tight base, does buying the break of the opening-range high make money after costs and the S&P 500, and does it beat buying the open at equal risk?","verdict":"FAIL","meaning":"FAIL means the breakout did not pass the study's pre-registered bar: its trades trailed the S&P 500 after costs. The gap-up variant also missed the bar but had only 100 trades, so it is under-powered, not a settled no.","evidence_class":"BACKTRADER","data_window":"10.7 years of 30-minute and daily bars, 783 symbols (2016 to 2026-10-02)","price_usd":0.25,"price_atomic":"250000","currency":"USDC","teaser_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/does-buying-the-opening-range-breakout-on-strong-stocks-make-money","paid_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/research/does-buying-the-opening-range-breakout-on-strong-stocks-make-money/full"},{"slug":"does-a-trend-template-and-volatility-contraction-breakout-beat-the-market","title":"Does a trend-template and volatility-contraction breakout rule beat the market?","question":"Does buying a US stock that passes a published trend template and then breaks out of a tightening base beat the S&P 500, net of costs, when the rule is read literally?","verdict":"FAIL","meaning":"FAIL means the rule did not pass the study's pre-registered bar: its out-of-sample trades trailed the S&P 500. It fired only 15 times in 10.7 years (4 out of sample), so the edge is too rare to judge either way.","evidence_class":"BACKTRADER","data_window":"10.7 years of daily bars, 640 US stocks (2016 to 2026-10-02)","price_usd":0.25,"price_atomic":"250000","currency":"USDC","teaser_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/does-a-trend-template-and-volatility-contraction-breakout-beat-the-market","paid_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/research/does-a-trend-template-and-volatility-contraction-breakout-beat-the-market/full"},{"slug":"does-weak-breadth-at-a-market-high-predict-a-worse-stock-market","title":"Does weak breadth under a market at its high predict a worse stock market?","question":"When the S&P 500 sits near its high while few of its stocks are above their 200-day average, or high-yield bonds lag investment-grade bonds, do stocks return less over the next 20 and 60 sessions, or fall further?","verdict":"THIN","meaning":"Not enough evidence either way. THIN means the registered setup never occurred in 2017 to 2026-06, and the looser checks had too few episodes to decide; the lean was toward slightly better returns after weak breadth, in line with the favourable version of the claim, but not significant.","evidence_class":"BACKTRADER","data_window":"9.4 years of daily bars, S&P 500 members, SPY, QQQ and credit ETFs (2017-01-03 to 2026-06-01)","price_usd":0.25,"price_atomic":"250000","currency":"USDC","teaser_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/does-weak-breadth-at-a-market-high-predict-a-worse-stock-market","paid_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/research/does-weak-breadth-at-a-market-high-predict-a-worse-stock-market/full"},{"slug":"does-buying-a-neglected-stock-after-a-big-volume-gap-up-beat-the-market","title":"Does buying a neglected stock after a big volume gap-up beat the market?","question":"After a liquid, neglected US stock gaps up 10% or more on at least 3 times its normal volume, does buying the next open and trailing a 10-day average beat the S&P 500 net of costs?","verdict":"THIN","meaning":"Not enough evidence either way. THIN means the rule neither passed nor missed its bar clearly: it earned a little after costs but trailed the S&P 500 over the same holds, and the result is too noisy to call.","evidence_class":"BACKTRADER","data_window":"10.5 years of daily bars, liquid US stocks (2016-01-01 to 2026-06-30)","price_usd":0.25,"price_atomic":"250000","currency":"USDC","teaser_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/does-buying-a-neglected-stock-after-a-big-volume-gap-up-beat-the-market","paid_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/research/does-buying-a-neglected-stock-after-a-big-volume-gap-up-beat-the-market/full"},{"slug":"does-buying-the-laggards-of-a-leading-sector-group-beat-the-market","title":"Does buying the laggards of a leading sector group beat the market?","question":"When a sector group's ETF leads the S&P 500 at 10:00 ET, do the group's laggards by recent return beat the S&P 500 from 10:00 ET to the close, after costs?","verdict":"REFUTED","meaning":"REFUTED means the study did not pass its pre-registered bar, and the test was powered, so this is a measured negative, not a null: the average trade was flat before costs and lost about 8.5 bps after them.","evidence_class":"BACKTRADER","data_window":"10 years of 30-minute bars, 14 sector and industry ETF groups (2016-10 to 2026-10-09)","price_usd":0.25,"price_atomic":"250000","currency":"USDC","teaser_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/does-buying-the-laggards-of-a-leading-sector-group-beat-the-market","paid_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/research/does-buying-the-laggards-of-a-leading-sector-group-beat-the-market/full"},{"slug":"does-buying-a-3x-inverse-index-fund-after-a-gap-down-pay","title":"Does buying a -3x inverse index fund after a gap-down pay?","question":"After SPY or QQQ gaps down 0.75% or more with a red first 30-minute bar, does buying the matching -3x index fund at 10:00 ET and selling once the index recovers its open, or near the close, make money after costs?","verdict":"THIN","meaning":"Not enough evidence either way. THIN means the rule did not pass its pre-registered bar, but the test was too small to separate its below-zero average from zero; it is not a negative verdict on the idea.","evidence_class":"BACKTRADER","data_window":"10 years of 30-minute bars, SPY, QQQ, SOXX and three -3x index funds (2016-10-18 to 2026-10-09)","price_usd":0.25,"price_atomic":"250000","currency":"USDC","teaser_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/does-buying-a-3x-inverse-index-fund-after-a-gap-down-pay","paid_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/research/does-buying-a-3x-inverse-index-fund-after-a-gap-down-pay/full"},{"slug":"does-buying-a-deeply-oversold-high-volatility-stock-the-next-day-pay","title":"Does buying a deeply oversold, high-volatility stock the next day pay by the close?","question":"When a liquid US stock closes a session with high volatility, a low daily RSI and a price well under its medium-term moving average, does buying it at 10:00 ET the next session and selling at the close beat the S&P 500 over the same hours, after costs?","verdict":"THIN","meaning":"Not enough evidence either way. THIN means the rule did not pass its pre-registered bar, but the test could see only a large effect: its average was slightly below zero, and a small effect can be neither confirmed nor ruled out.","evidence_class":"BACKTRADER","data_window":"10 years of 30-minute bars, 441 US stocks and SPY (2016 to 2026-10-02)","price_usd":0.25,"price_atomic":"250000","currency":"USDC","teaser_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/does-buying-a-deeply-oversold-high-volatility-stock-the-next-day-pay","paid_url":"https://coil.trade/learn/research/does-buying-a-deeply-oversold-high-volatility-stock-the-next-day-pay/full"}],"how_to_read":"Each study's full text is one plain x402 payment per read at its paid_url (USDC on Base, Solana or Algorand; no account, no subscription). A GET without payment returns the 402 with the exact price on every rail.","discovery":{"x402":"https://coil.trade/.well-known/x402?resource=research","openapi":"https://coil.trade/openapi.json","llms":"https://coil.trade/llms.txt","mcp_tool":"list_research"},"note":"Published studies, not advice. Verdicts are as each study's pre-registered bar states them. FAIL means the tested idea did not clear the bar written before the run, which is not the same as 'the idea loses money'. Each row's meaning line says what its verdict does and does not say."}