{"product":"coil-signal-audit","computed_at":"2026-07-31T18:16:14+00:00","methodology":"For each committed day: fwd 1/5-session close-to-close returns of the top-decile-by-opp_pct and entry_q>=70 cohorts, vs the board median (internal control) and an equal-weight basket of the decile's own sector ETFs weighted by its sector mix (external control). Closes = Alpaca SIP dailies. No smoothing, no dropped days except >20% missing closes (counted in skipped_days). Inputs are public: /api/board/asof + /api/board/proof. Fixed before the first result was computed; published even when negative.","summary":{"n_days":10,"avg_excess_vs_sector_5d_pp":0.009,"avg_excess_vs_median_5d_pp":-0.383,"hit_rate_5d_vs_sector":0.5,"skipped_days":0,"rider":"n=10 committed days \u2014 thin, and shown anyway. A sample this small proves methodology, not edge; the number will move. Percentage points, scores and states only; research, not advice."},"days":[{"date":"2026-07-13","board_names":563,"decile_n":56,"top_decile_fwd1_pct":0.65,"top_decile_fwd5_pct":-0.568,"ready_fwd1_pct":-0.359,"ready_fwd5_pct":0.713,"board_median_fwd5_pct":-0.378,"sector_control_fwd5_pct":-0.658,"excess_vs_sector_5d_pp":0.09,"excess_vs_median_5d_pp":-0.19},{"date":"2026-07-14","board_names":563,"decile_n":56,"top_decile_fwd1_pct":-0.569,"top_decile_fwd5_pct":0.539,"ready_fwd1_pct":-0.091,"ready_fwd5_pct":-0.03,"board_median_fwd5_pct":-0.153,"sector_control_fwd5_pct":0.206,"excess_vs_sector_5d_pp":0.333,"excess_vs_median_5d_pp":0.692},{"date":"2026-07-15","board_names":563,"decile_n":56,"top_decile_fwd1_pct":0.683,"top_decile_fwd5_pct":1.329,"ready_fwd1_pct":1.034,"ready_fwd5_pct":1.765,"board_median_fwd5_pct":-0.141,"sector_control_fwd5_pct":0.414,"excess_vs_sector_5d_pp":0.916,"excess_vs_median_5d_pp":1.47},{"date":"2026-07-16","board_names":565,"decile_n":56,"top_decile_fwd1_pct":0.466,"top_decile_fwd5_pct":1.119,"ready_fwd1_pct":0.21,"ready_fwd5_pct":1.04,"board_median_fwd5_pct":-1.455,"sector_control_fwd5_pct":-0.055,"excess_vs_sector_5d_pp":1.174,"excess_vs_median_5d_pp":2.573},{"date":"2026-07-17","board_names":565,"decile_n":56,"top_decile_fwd1_pct":-0.712,"top_decile_fwd5_pct":0.667,"ready_fwd1_pct":-0.418,"ready_fwd5_pct":0.978,"board_median_fwd5_pct":0.077,"sector_control_fwd5_pct":0.413,"excess_vs_sector_5d_pp":0.254,"excess_vs_median_5d_pp":0.591},{"date":"2026-07-20","board_names":565,"decile_n":56,"top_decile_fwd1_pct":0.945,"top_decile_fwd5_pct":0.961,"ready_fwd1_pct":0.141,"ready_fwd5_pct":0.877,"board_median_fwd5_pct":1.089,"sector_control_fwd5_pct":1.014,"excess_vs_sector_5d_pp":-0.053,"excess_vs_median_5d_pp":-0.128},{"date":"2026-07-21","board_names":565,"decile_n":56,"top_decile_fwd1_pct":-0.029,"top_decile_fwd5_pct":0.508,"ready_fwd1_pct":0.307,"ready_fwd5_pct":1.283,"board_median_fwd5_pct":2.387,"sector_control_fwd5_pct":0.633,"excess_vs_sector_5d_pp":-0.125,"excess_vs_median_5d_pp":-1.879},{"date":"2026-07-22","board_names":565,"decile_n":56,"top_decile_fwd1_pct":-0.211,"top_decile_fwd5_pct":-1.708,"ready_fwd1_pct":-0.178,"ready_fwd5_pct":0.476,"board_median_fwd5_pct":1.842,"sector_control_fwd5_pct":-0.334,"excess_vs_sector_5d_pp":-1.374,"excess_vs_median_5d_pp":-3.55},{"date":"2026-07-23","board_names":565,"decile_n":56,"top_decile_fwd1_pct":0.224,"top_decile_fwd5_pct":-0.53,"ready_fwd1_pct":0.53,"ready_fwd5_pct":1.317,"board_median_fwd5_pct":1.475,"sector_control_fwd5_pct":0.234,"excess_vs_sector_5d_pp":-0.764,"excess_vs_median_5d_pp":-2.006},{"date":"2026-07-24","board_names":565,"decile_n":56,"top_decile_fwd1_pct":-0.622,"top_decile_fwd5_pct":-0.76,"ready_fwd1_pct":0.433,"ready_fwd5_pct":0.557,"board_median_fwd5_pct":0.641,"sector_control_fwd5_pct":-0.396,"excess_vs_sector_5d_pp":-0.364,"excess_vs_median_5d_pp":-1.402}],"verify":"Recompute from /api/board/asof (?sample=1 free) + any clean daily OHLCV source; expect agreement within a few bp of rounding and feed differences."}